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Utah Republican primary poll shows Spencer Cox and John Curtis in the lead
Utah Republican primary poll shows Spencer Cox and John Curtis in the lead

Curtis has a 20 percentage point lead in the race for the U.S. Senate to succeed Mitt Romney. House Representative Phil Lyman trails Cox 42% to 55%, with a margin of error of nearly 5%.

(Isaac Hale | Pool) Gov. Spencer Cox, left, speaks with Rep. Phil Lyman before a Republican gubernatorial primary debate taking place at the Eccles Broadcast Center in Salt Lake City, Tuesday, June 11, 2024.

Utah Gov. Spencer Cox is leading his challenger and Rep. Phil Lyman in the race for the Republican nomination for governor, according to a poll of likely Republican voters in the primary election released Monday.

Cox leads Lyman by 13 percentage points — 55% to 42% — in the poll conducted by Noble Predictive Insights. The survey of likely GOP voters was conducted on June 20 and 21 and has a margin of error of 4.7%.

Meanwhile, U.S. Representative John Curtis is leading the race for the U.S. Senate nomination with 48% of the vote, well ahead of Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs with 28%, former House Speaker Brad Wilson with 9% and Jason Walton with 6%.

Both Lyman and Staggs perform better among men and in the southern and rural areas of the state, said David Byler, director of research at Noble Predictive Insights.

“The southern, rural areas of Utah were a problem for Cox in the 2020 gubernatorial primary, so it’s no surprise that both Cox and Curtis are getting some of their worst results there,” Byler said. “But both Curtis and Cox got better numbers in the other regions of the state and have a real lead.”

Staggs fares much better among former President Donald Trump’s most ardent supporters, beating Curtis 55% to 22% among those who consider themselves “Trump-first” Republicans. In the gubernatorial race, the gap is even wider: Among “Trump-first” Republicans, Lyman leads Cox 80% to 19%.

“In most Republican primaries, Trump’s support is a virtual guarantee of victory,” said David Byler, NPI’s research director. “But in Utah – a uniquely conservative but Trump-skeptical state – the situation is different. Trump’s support helps, but it’s not a golden ticket.”

By Isla